The 36% Illusion: Why Prediction Markets Are Not Oracles of Truth
A prediction market shows a 36% probability that Gulf states will take milita...
Analysis
•
KaiLion
•
2026-07-20
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$64,475.2
+0.62%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,879.18
+1.01%
SOL
Solana
$74.68
+0.82%
BNB
BNB Chain
$569.8
+0.92%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.1
+0.60%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0717
+3.09%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1653
+0.73%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.78
+8.30%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8162
+0.83%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.4
+0.84%
Event Calendar
202615
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trending
💡 Smart Money
0x50a6...dca9
Arbitrage Bot
+$2.7M
74%
0x6f2e...482e
Top DeFi Miner
+$3.6M
93%
0xfd62...863c
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$3.9M
73%
#systemic fragility
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Market Quotes
•
Credtoshi
•
2026-07-13
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
Market Sentiment
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,475.2 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,879.18 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.68 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$569.8 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0717 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1653 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.78 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8162 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.4 |
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x5c04...1cca
3h ago
In
4,625,600 USDT
🔴
0xc5ae...0a0d
5m ago
Out
478.92 BTC
🟢
0x361a...2524
12m ago
In
669,259 USDC